Ebook subscription models? Book It

Big news bubbling about Amazon's moves for Christmas, including the new Kindle Fire tablet and possible $99 Kindles, as well as a Touch Kindle. I'd never own a touch screen of any kind because I don't like greasy smears on my screen, but others like them. And I am not a techie by any means, I just want what works at a low price and doesn't give me headaches. IreaderReview is one of my favorite places to follow such Kindle developments.

But for readers and writers, the real issue is: What does this mean for ebooks? I've been predicting for about a year that Amazon will soon be bundling books into a "Netflix" model, where you get all the books you can eat for one monthly fee. Amazon already has the model in place, and they just announced new additions to its Prime offering. It's never really been a device war in the long term--iPad and Kindle never were direct competitors for the ereading audience. Just ask any author who has access to their sales numbers (and don't believe what you hear from publishing companies, who are still desperately trying to spin their Apple agency pricing as a win). People reading on iPads are using the Kindle or Nook apps. Apple maybe has 2 percent of the book market. Probably less.

The cheap Kindle will pretty much lock up Amazon's crown as the content king. At least for five years, which is eons in the technological era. Look how many different devices have come out in just the last three years. Yet Amazon continues to be the content king, with at least 70 percent of the ebook market. (Again, if you look at publisher data, publishers will claim BN has about 27 percent of the market, but their data is incredibly skewed--don't forget these two are joined at the hip through the physical bookstores.) And Amazon is rapidly expanding its world markets.

BN's problem is the weight of those physical bookstores. It's difficult to promote the Nook while still paying lip service to paper books and investing resources in managing the bookstores where books are an ever-lower percentage of their floor space.  Kobo will be lucky to survive another year. Google is still freighted with its illegally scanned books, plus they don't really have a device out there. Sony will ride the Pottermore wave until those buyers realize they really don't have a very good bookstore selection after Harry Potter.

I don't know the pricing structure of the Prime books model. I only know it's coming. It's not only inevitable, I would be shocked if it didn't happen by next summer. Amazon has already been sending out feelers to publishers, and the Kindle library lending is a big step in mainstreaming ebooks. We still don't know how authors will be paid--presumably enough to keep writing, making less per book on a higher volume of sales. And Prime is a natural fit for rolling in advertising which means even lower prices for devices and ebooks.

Is it a win for everyone? It certainly is for Amazon. And I signed a book deal with Amazon, which is where I am putting my chips. What's funny is that BN was uniquely positioned to become a publisher a decade ago, and even put out a few books under its own imprint. And traditional  publishers never built ebook stores where they could control their own catalog and peddle their own subscriptions. Probably it was the shortsightedness of having to show investors a nice return every three months.

Bottom line looks like: cheaper, faster, more. I don't know what the future holds, but I'm holding on for one hell of a wild ride!
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Be Nicholson's Agent! Win 15 percent of my money

I've announced this a little but it's time to get serious. In traditional publishing, an agent earns 15 percent for selling a book to a publisher. I think my readers who help sell my books to other readers also deserve 15 percent.

So, in September, I am giving away 15 percent of my ebook revenues in the form of gift cards to Amazon and BN.com, as well as prizes to supporting blogs. It's simple. Watch this blog for different ways you can enter, simply by spreading the word about my books.

Each one of my books also has a blog serving as its rep, with guest posts, events, and special giveaways at those blogs. There will be other ways to win gift cards, too. No complicated, seven-step keys to entry. Each giveaway will be for one specific action. And this is one to tell your friends about, because the bigger it gets, the more I give away. And in this economy, who doesn't like free money?

I am also looking for core volunteers to serve on Team Scott and help out with the promotion. In return, you get inside tips on marketing and, for authors, a 50-word listing of your book in one of my books for three months. Plus you're still eligible for all the giveaways. Email benicholsonsagent AT yahoo.com to volunteer for Team Scott.

The best way to stay clued in for giveaways is to follow this blog, sign up for my newsletter at scottsinnercircle-subscribe@yahoogroups.com, and follow me on Facebook, Twitter, Goodreads, and Google+. Big, fun, and easy, just like me. Be Nicholson's Agent and we all win.

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Liquid Fear seeps out

Liquid Fear is now live for 99 cents at  Amazon, BN.com, and Smashwords and don't forget to blog hop for the Fool's Gold Rush on April 1 and meet all the major characters. Eleven blogs, more than $200 in prizes, a chance to help Liquid Fear twist even more minds. Thanks for your support. This book was a fun but at times intense journey through some of my own fears--and believe me, I have a closet full. I hope you come along for the ride, tell your friends, or write reviews. Let's go crazy together.

Thanks to Jennifer at Book Den for the Countdown Image!
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These Things Happened

Most of what follows is true, even the fiction. It contains cigarette smoking, drinking, and, yes, some sex, because I know you like that sort of thing. This has been a strange life. My life.

Features stories, poems, and essays of relationships, romance, joy, and pain. Some of this will make you laugh, some of it may make you cry. You might hate me later, but that's okay. You won't be the first.

Features "Our Future Together," "City of Dreams," "So You Want to be a Writer?," "Dead Cats and Rain," and more. 

99 cents for a limited time.
For Kindle at http://www.amazon.com/These-Things-Happened-ebook/dp/B004SQQWIQ
Other formats at Smashwords http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/48233
Apple, Kobo, and BN Nook coming soon
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Digital Book World

Some great new developments about the changing industry at Digital Book World. I especially enjoyed the comics write-up and Jane Friedman's blog. There are so many levels to the changing industry, with the "top story" (the corporate-level ministrations published by the mainstream press and clearly biased toward whatever will keep it viable and relevant and please shareholders) being that Apple is saving altruistic, good-hearted publishers from Evil Amazon; the middle level is, "Which device should I buy when there are a million choices and I have no guarantee that every book will be available on any of them?"; and the lower level, where every kid is coming up with her own cool app and is being the content and entertainment instead of consuming it.

The notion of transmedia is also a bit intriguing--it almost seems as though this struggle to establish e-books will be entirely overwhelmed by the crashing wave of new media content, a hybridized book/comic/movie/audiobook. Or, as one iPad reviewer noted, while publishers are battling over whether ebooks should be $9.99 or $14.99, "I am finding lots of cool things that are a lot less than $9.99."
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Amazon-Macmillan Peace Treaty

Well, Amazon ceded the battle but the war was already over. Amazon, after pulling Macmillan titles for a couple of days over ebook prices, graciously relented and agreed to Macmillan's desired ebook prices of up to $14.99. I am surprised it was settled so quickly, but it actually makes sense. Amazon could certainly afford to hold out longer than Macmillan, but Amazon also risked its reputation as the world's top bookstore, a difficult claim to maintain when you don't carry one of the six major publishers in the United States. Macmillan risked almost everything, and I never believed the perceived threat of the Apple iPad carried much weight, because many consumers don't see it as a legitimate ebook reader. Instead, it's a computer you can read books on, just as you can your desktop.

Amazon wins by appearing gracious but it has already established the public perception of the value of an ebook, $9.99. No matter what happens from now on, the core foundation of ebook consumers has been presented the value of ebooks. Amazon gets to continue offering Macmillan products while making it clear they think the price is too high, but allowing consumers to make their own choice. Some consumers will pay the higher price for instant gratification. Others will wait for the ebook price to drop, as it inevitably will, in much the same way a paperback crowd bypasses a hardcover version.

Macmillan wins by getting its preferred price, though surely it is only temporary. When authors see they are getting only a tiny fraction of ebook royalties, and Amazon is waving a 70 percent royalty at them, it's clear that some authors will begin withholding their ebook rights unless the publisher is fairly compensating them overall (i.e., their paper sales are more than enough to offset this lost revenue.) Hopefully Macmillan will use the time it has bought to get a reasonable handle on ebooks and embrace the new market instead of trying to ignore the gorilla in the room.

Independent authors and small presses win because they have virtually no overhead and can offer their ebooks for a couple of bucks and compete for readers among value-minded consumers. True, they don't carry the name clout of major authors, but cumulatively they are a force that won't be ignored, because they have no stake in artificially high prices for ebooks.

Apple wins because it was all about promotion for its iPad. Apple and the publishing industry used the issue to get attention, and people who like Apple products will buy an iPad and all the assorted gimmicks, wireless plans, and other tethers that will keep them hooked to the Apple tree, and they will be happy. I don't think many of them will be reading books when they have so many other toys available. Either way, it expands the reality of ebooks.

And ebooks win, because this has been the single most-talked-about book news of the past few years, and brought ebooks to the mainstream. They undeniably exist now, and are important enough for corporations to war over. That is good news for readers everywhere, whether they go paper or plastic. More books, more diversity, more literacy, more stories, more education, and more joy.

Link to a good analysis by JA Konrath