One of the core themes of my inspirational guide The Indie Journey: Secrets To Writing Success is "Don't expect tomorrow to look like today." A lot of indie writers are making big decisions based on the expectation that the world will remain exactly the same, which is contrary to the experience of every one of us who have lived on this planet. Here are things that could and almost certainly will affect the indie future:
1. "I'll get 70 percent forever!" Yes, and those tech stocks in the 1990s just kept shooting through the roof, didn't they? The housing market of four years ago was unstoppable, too.
2. "There will be more and more markets in the future, so competition will keep retailers offering good terms." There will be one winner who basically sets the terms for everybody. Look at Apple for music and games apps if you need convincing.
3. "Library lending opens a whole new market!" Well, actually, it may CLOSE markets. If people can check out your ebook from home, and a library only needs one digital copy, you will be very lucky to get one sale per library. That's a lot of libraries, but also no reason for anyone ever to buy your book again from a retailer.
4. "Advertising will support ebooks so companies will pay writers to be featured in their books." It's likely advertisers will pay retailers and distributors, not the authors. No one knows what this will look like, or how revenues will be split--or even if there will be writer revenues at all. Think of the YouTube music video where you sit through the 15-second ad first.
5. "So-and-so promised all indie authors will be rich." We usually hear what we want to hear. Lottery stories are cool. But the lottery is only cool because almost nobody wins it. Including you and me.
Mantra: Since the future will be different, why not be happy now and be prepared to be happy tomorrow?